Running out of freshwater
Providing freshwater in the 21st century will be a global problem
The UN predicts that by 2050 the world population will peak at 12 billion, while some less conservative projections estimate even 15 billion. Throughout this century, this growing population will experience climate changes, primarily as a result of the burning of fossil fuels. The combination of climate change and population growth may have serious implications for the resource essential to our survival freshwater.
The current use of the world's freshwater stands at 70% on agriculture, 20% industrial and 10% domestic. As the population increases there will be an increase in demand for freshwater in all of these areas. Between the years 1950 and 2000 the world's population increased from 2.5 to 6.1 billion (approximately two and a half times), whereas the demand for water increased sevenfold. In 2004 the amount of water was estimated at 8250 cubic metres per person annually, but the actual amount of water available is unevenly distributed. It is estimated that over 1 billion people do not have access to safe freshwater.
The areas with less access to freshwater are usually those that do not have the financing to build reservoirs, dams and cleaning systems. These poorer countries are often associated with large population increases. Sub-Saharan Africa is the prime area with such problems, where countries such as Ethiopia and Mozambique have estimated 1520 and 2470 cubic metres of water per person respectively and an associated population increase of approximately 2.4% and 3.6% annually.
It is also the Sub-Saharan nations that are likely to be affected by severe droughts due to global warming. In November 2005 two studies based on climate change models found that the rainfall in these regions had declined dramatically. The region is set to become drier still with an estimated 30% reduction in the average rainfall from the 20th century to the end of the 21st century.
Australian researchers have recently found that sea levels rose by 19.5 cm between 1870 and 2004, with the last 50 years having accelerated rates. Sea level rises will inevitably mean the flooding of low-lying land and could lead to the contamination of rivers and lakes with salt water. If this is the case, then further measures will have to be taken to provide clean freshwater, probably through desalinisation plants.
Providing freshwater throughout the 20th century was really a problem of the developing world since most developed countries have water plants and drainage systems. As global warming and increase in demand due to population growth begin to take an effect, freshwater will become an international issue that needs to be addressed.
