A Lib Dem resurrection (for now)
The Liberal Democrats, Britain's fun third party, were not a healthy bunch in recent times. After being led to their best result in a modern general election, former leader Charles Kennedy "confessed" to having a drink problem (I say confessed, but it wasn't that much of a bombshell, really?), which started a reversal of fortunes for the party. After the disposition of the popular leader, further controversies over the future leadership, gay prostitutes and sexuality all put in a joint effort to halve their support to just 11%.
When all was looking bleak though, the Lib Dems managed to pull off a surprising victory last Thursday in the Dunfermline and West Fife byelection, held after the recent death of Labour MP Rachel Squire. The new MP Willie Rennie, overturned , an 11,500 Labour majority; with Labour's vote dropping to half it's original total. What events caused such an upset, and does this signify a return to form to the Liberal Democrats?
Obviously the Liberals have taken time to capitalise on such a win. Soon afterwards Willie was telling fellow Lib Dem members afterwards that the victory shows Labour's poor form and how they are not willing to confront its problems, with "Gordon Brown hiding away in Moscow [on a G8 summit trip] and Tony Blair [not speaking] about the defeat". It also highlighted, according to him, that ultimately it was a test of the national mood, with the result being a poor showing for Labour and Conservatives. Senior Lib Dems have also taken great pleasure in the fact that their new territory borders the constituency held by Gordon Brown; and as a result, the constituency home that Gordon Brown uses is now under Lib Dem control.
Looking at the evidence though, this view is not really apparent. Senior analysts have put the Labour loss down to campaign mishaps. Despite several controversies tuition fees, the Iraq war, terrorism bills etc. Labour have still managed to hold on to its overall majority. However this campaign was dogged from the start. The incumbent Labour government drew significant criticism by deciding to raise tolls on the Forth Bridge, and the announcement that the local Lexmark factory in Rosyth was to close lost a significant amount of votes.
This is the view held by Scottish secretary Alastair Darling, who accepted that Labour's inability to organize their local vote contributed to the defeat. This is also the view held by Imperial student and young Labour party member Alex Guite. He told Felix "I don't think it reflects the national mood. The by-election was fought on local issues...It's important to get some perspective on the result: only eight months ago the people of Dunfermline and Fife endorsed Labour with a majority of 11,500".
Also any Lib Dems jumping for joy may wish to think twice. Scotland is very Lib/Lab friendly, so any major competition is bound to move to the Liberals. As such this result is not a major reflection on how the Liberals are going to perform at the next election (at time of writing, they only have a support of 13% from the latest poll). Lib Dems also have a history of performing well in by-elections, campaigning well on local issues, but not doing better on nationwide ones. Alex Guite pointed out that Leicester South, a previous victory field for the Lib Dems in a by-election, became a Labour seat again at the 2005 general election and warned that "I'm confident that come the next general election [Labour] will win the seat back".
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